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Updated India Estimates Showed No Clear Trend for River Tern

River tern perched on a rock at Ranganathittu, India
Conservation · Population & status

The 2025 interim update from State of India’s Birds reported revised national trend estimates for the river tern (Sterna aurantia) in India. The numerical update was released on 6 May 2026 as part of the project’s updated eBird-based dataset.

The long-term numerical estimate was −15.6%, but its uncertainty was large enough that the updated data did not establish a clear long-term decline. The current annual estimate was +0.66% per year and was likewise too uncertain to show a clear recent increase or decline. The species page still displays the carried-over 2023 categories Decline for the long-term trend and Trend Inconclusive for the current annual trend; these labels were not recalculated from the 2025 numerical estimates.

The species’ modelled distribution range in India was estimated at 1,291,505 km². State of India’s Birds lists the river tern as a resident and local migrant wetland specialist, non-endemic to India, identifies Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Telangana as key states, and retains it in the Moderate conservation-priority category.

The interim release updated numerical range and trend estimates for 942 previously assessed bird species using approximately 48 million eBird observations through 31 May 2025. The trend values describe change in a reporting-based abundance index rather than direct counts of individual birds. The assessment categories themselves were not recalculated in this update.

Sources and image credit

  1. State of India’s Birds Partnership. (2026). State of India’s Birds: Range, trends, and conservation status – 2025 interim update (Version 2) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20036633Primary 2026 dataset release created 6 May 2026. Version 2 updated numerical distribution range size, long-term trend and current annual trend values for 942 previously evaluated species using approximately 48 million eBird observations through 31 May 2025; the assessment categories were unchanged.
  2. State of India’s Birds Partnership. (2025). State of India’s Birds factsheet: River Tern (Sterna aurantia), India.National page displaying the 2025 numerical update: long-term trend −15.61% (−29.49 to +0.30), current annual trend +0.66% (−0.67 to +1.99), distribution range 1,291,505 km² (1,291,057–1,291,953), retained categories Decline and Trend Inconclusive, resident and local migrant status, wetland specialization, non-endemicity, key states Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Telangana, and Moderate conservation priority.

Image: Timothy A. Gonsalves (Tagooty) — river tern (Sterna aurantia) photographed at Ranganathittu, Mandya, Karnataka, India, 27 February 2024; representative species image for the national trend update, cropped to 16:9 from the original. Source: Wikimedia Commons. · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Source

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