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Tiger Recovery in Nepal Was Strongly Correlated With Rising Conflict Indicators

Wild Bengal tiger in forest habitat in Bardia National Park
Conservation · Human–wildlife conflict

Nepal’s recovery of the tiger (Panthera tigris) has been accompanied by growing social and economic challenges in landscapes shared by people and large wildlife. A study published on 4 March 2026 in Biodiversity and Conservation analysed long-term trends in tiger numbers, human injuries and casualties, livestock losses, relief payments and wildlife management across the country’s Terai Arc Landscape.

The researchers combined government statistics and reports with a literature review, interviews with 50 key informants and a stakeholder workshop. Over the study period, Nepal’s wild tiger population rose from fewer than 100 animals to 355, while several indicators of human–wildlife conflict also increased significantly.

Tiger Numbers and Several Conflict Indicators Rose Together

Across roughly 15 years, the study reported annual averages of 18 human casualties, 152 injuries and 47 cattle losses. Tiger abundance was strongly positively correlated with several conflict measures, including human injuries, cattle losses and total incidents. Tiger numbers, human injuries, casualties, cattle losses and public relief payments also increased over time.

The authors treat these results as associations between parallel trends rather than evidence that tiger population growth alone explains every conflict event. Conflict levels are also shaped by how people use forests and farmland, prey and habitat availability, livestock husbandry, infrastructure and local mitigation measures.

Graphs showing trends in tiger population, human conflict incidents, livestock losses and wildlife relief payments in Nepal
Trends in Nepal’s wild tiger population, human incidents, livestock depredation and wildlife relief distribution. Figure 2 from Pandey, Apan & Maraseni (2026), Biodiversity and Conservation, CC BY 4.0.

Cattle Losses and Relief Payments Peaked Around 2021–2022

Public relief payments for wildlife damage averaged about US$1.1–1.18 million annually. These payments cover damage caused by 17 wildlife species under Nepal’s compensation system, not only tiger incidents. Cattle losses and relief payments peaked around 2021–2022 before declining toward 2024, a change the authors associate with strengthened livestock protection, patrolling, compensation procedures and community awareness after the COVID-19 period.

Stakeholder priorities differed: local communities emphasised safety and compensation, while officials and other organisations placed more weight on enforcement, coordination and longer-term mitigation. The authors argue for approaches that combine conflict prevention and early warning with livelihood protection, habitat and prey management and coordinated landscape planning.

The study did not quantitatively compare alternative management approaches, and its focus on Nepal’s Terai Arc Landscape limits how broadly the conclusions can be generalised. The proposed policy alternatives were also not tested through scenario analysis or further stakeholder consultation.

Sources and image credit

  1. Pandey, H. P., Apan, A., & Maraseni, T. N. (2026). Assessing the aftermath of tripling the tigers’ population in Nepal: Socio-economic and eco-environmental sustainability perspectives. Biodiversity and Conservation, 35, 96. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-026-03301-3Primary peer-reviewed open-access study published 4 March 2026 under CC BY 4.0. The study combined government time-series data, a literature review, 50 key-informant interviews and a stakeholder workshop. Tiger abundance was strongly positively correlated with several conflict indicators, while trend analyses found significant increases in tiger numbers, human injuries and casualties, cattle losses and relief payments.

Image: Ambish Kazi — wild Bengal tiger at Hatitaal in Bardia National Park, Nepal, photographed 29 April 2024; Wikimedia Commons; representative image from Nepal, not an individual tied to the study data · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Source

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