Little Egret Breeding Population Estimated at 2,236 Pairs in the UK and Channel Islands

A new analysis estimated the little egret (Egretta garzetta) breeding population in the UK and Channel Islands at 2,236 pairs in 2022, expressed as apparently occupied nests. The study combined data from the long-running BTO Heronries Census with records from the Rare Breeding Birds Panel (RBBP) to produce an annual estimate for a species that has expanded rapidly since first breeding in Britain in Dorset in 1996.
The model had to account for new colonies
The analytical model used for grey herons assumes that the number of colonies remains constant. That assumption does not fit little egrets, because the species is still establishing new breeding colonies. The researchers therefore used an alternative model designed to capture new colonisations more effectively.
Using Heronries Census data alone, the model estimated about 1,886 apparently occupied nests in 2022. When the researchers combined the Census with RBBP records and used the highest count available for each colony, the estimate rose to 2,236.
The combined estimate was around 40% higher than the RBBP total
The 2,236 estimate was around 40% higher than the number of nests reported directly to the RBBP that year. The authors also give reasons to suspect that the true breeding population may be higher still, because some colonies can remain undetected or be incompletely counted.
The estimate exceeds 2,000 breeding pairs, a threshold above which species are normally no longer assessed annually by the RBBP. It also provides a practical benchmark for identifying nationally important breeding sites: 1% of the estimated population corresponds to about 22 pairs.
The authors conclude that the Heronries Census can now support annual little egret population estimates, provided the model and survey methods continue to be refined. They also suggest that the same framework may eventually help monitor other expanding colonial waterbirds such as western cattle egret, great egret and Eurasian spoonbill.
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