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Climate Models Projected Black-collared Barbet Range Shifts into Higher, Cooler Areas

A black-collared barbet perched in a leafy tree in Kruger National Park
Conservation · Threats

Climate models project that black-collared barbets (Lybius torquatus) could shift towards higher and cooler parts of South Africa as temperatures rise. The species was one of four birds examined in a study of possible range changes and biome crossings in and around the arid Northern Cape.

The researchers began with 178,843 occurrence records for black-collared barbets from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. After cleaning and thinning the data to reduce sampling bias, 12,713 records were retained. MaxEnt models combined these records with annual mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and annual precipitation.

Current conditions were compared with projections for 2050 and 2070 under three emissions pathways. Annual mean temperature made the largest contribution to the models for all four species.

Models projected biome crossings and movement to higher elevations

The future models combined a broader south-westerly shift into the Northern Cape with expansion towards higher-elevation areas farther east. The paper describes suitable conditions extending into the Free State around the Maluti Mountains near Lesotho and into the Drakensberg of the northern Eastern Cape. The authors identify the Drakensberg and Eastern Cape Highlands as cooler microclimates that could act as refuges for black-collared barbets as lowland areas warm.

The appearance of suitable conditions in new areas did not mean that the species gained range overall. Across all four modelled birds, the total projected distribution decreased under the future scenarios; losses were greatest under the very-high-emissions SSP5-8.5 pathway and were generally larger in the 2070 projections than in 2050. The models therefore describe redistribution and biome crossing alongside an overall contraction of climatically suitable range.

Sources and image credit

  1. Appalasamy, M., Parker-Allie, F., & Harebottle, D. M. (2026). Predicting current and future distributions of bird species in South Africa’s arid Northern Cape under climate change scenarios: Are biomes being crossed? Biodiversity Data Journal, 14, e177882. https://doi.org/10.3897/BDJ.14.e177882Primary peer-reviewed open-access article published 20 February 2026 under CC BY 4.0. The black-collared barbet model retained 12,713 cleaned occurrence records from 178,843 GBIF records; AUC was 0.79 and TSS 0.85. Future projections covered 2050 and 2070 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.

Image: Diego Delso, delso.photo — black-collared barbet (Lybius torquatus) in Kruger National Park, South Africa, 25 July 2018; representative species image. Source: Wikimedia Commons. · CC BY-SA 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ · Source

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