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Model Estimated 49% Occupancy for Isolated Blackbuck Population in North-central Gujarat

Blackbuck herd crossing a track in dry grassland in Gujarat
Research · Ecology

A study of an isolated blackbuck (Antilope cervicapra) population in north-central Gujarat, India estimated occupancy at 49%. In this type of model, occupancy is the estimated proportion of survey grids used by the species after accounting for animals that may be present but go undetected. The population occurs in a heavily human-used semi-arid landscape outside a protected area.

The researchers surveyed 38 grids measuring 1.5 × 1.5 km and then tested which landscape factors were associated with blackbuck occurrence. Occupancy increased with the extent of water bodies, while greater human habitation and more rugged terrain were associated with lower occupancy.

The population may be the last isolated group in the region

The study describes the population as isolated and possibly the last remaining blackbuck population in this part of Gujarat. Available counts indicate a decline from more than 300 animals to fewer than 50 over roughly four decades. The authors identify land-use change, human activity, feral dogs, human–blackbuck conflict and the lack of a protected area among the major local pressures.

Informal discussions with villagers nevertheless found attitudes largely positive toward coexistence with blackbuck and toward restoration and improved management of community lands. The authors argue that conserving small refuge patches and incorporating local social conditions into land management could help the population persist in this human-dominated landscape.

Sources and image credit

  1. Mesariya, D., Johar S.R., K., & Mehta, D. (2026). Habitat occupancy and conservation implications for an isolated Blackbuck population in a tropical, semi-arid human-dominated landscape. Proceedings of the Zoological Society, 79(1), 16–30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12595-026-00607-6Primary peer-reviewed article, first published online 23 February 2026. The study sampled 38 grids in north-central Gujarat and estimated blackbuck occupancy at 49% with detection probability 0.5. Occupancy was positively associated with water-body extent and negatively associated with human habitation and terrain ruggedness.

Image: Bernard Gagnon — wild blackbucks photographed in Blackbuck National Park, Velavadar, Gujarat, India, 23 November 2013; Wikimedia Commons; representative Gujarat image, not animals from the study population; cropped to 16:9 · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Source

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