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Rain Was Followed by Higher Nile Monitor Capture Probability One Day Later in Cape Coral

Wild Nile monitor at Sunset Dam in Kruger National Park, South Africa
Research · Ecology

Rainfall was followed by a higher probability of capturing invasive Nile monitors (Varanus niloticus) in Cape Coral, Florida, USA, according to a 2026 study using long-term trapping records from the city’s control programme. Researchers analysed daily weather and capture data from baited live-animal traps deployed in terrestrial habitat along canals between July 2007 and December 2022. The traps were checked daily while deployed.

The strongest positive pattern appeared one day after rain

The day-by-day model showed the clearest positive relationship one day after rainfall. Capture probability was lower on the day it rained and again three days afterwards. A second, simpler analysis comparing rainy and non-rainy days also found that captures were positively associated with rain one and two days earlier. Together, the analyses therefore point to a short delay after rainfall rather than an immediate same-day increase.

Capture probability is not the same as measured activity

The authors suggest that conditions after rainfall may increase Nile monitor movement and therefore the chance of animals encountering baited traps, potentially as part of altered foraging activity. Movement and foraging were not measured directly, however. The result is therefore a trapping pattern that may reflect animal behaviour, trap encounter rates or both.

Sources and image credit

  1. Mulla, A. M., Shukla, S., Sweely, B. M., Hankins, K., Phillips, H., & Doody, J. S. (2026). Effects of Weather Conditions on Trapping of Nile Monitors (Varanus niloticus) in Florida, USA. Journal of Herpetology, 60(2), 77. https://doi.org/10.1670/2701457Primary peer-reviewed research article published in June 2026. Trapping records from Cape Coral, Florida, from July 2007 to December 2022 showed a positive effect of rainfall on capture probability one day later and positive associations with captures one and two days after rainfall.

Image: Bernard DUPONT / Wikimedia Commons / Flickr — wild Nile monitor at Sunset Dam, Kruger National Park, South Africa, 4 June 2022; representative species image, not a Florida study animal; cropped to 16:9 · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Source

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