Skip to content

Climate Models Projected 5–11% Habitat Gains for Red-headed Vulture in Three Future Scenarios

Red-headed Vulture in Bandhavgarh National Park, India
Research · Ecology

Climate modelling for the critically endangered red-headed vulture (Sarcogyps calvus) in Central India projected modest increases in suitable habitat under three future scenarios, but a small net loss under a fourth. The study estimated about 91,201 km² of suitable habitat under current conditions and examined how that area could shift as climate changes.

Radhika Jha and Kaushalendra Kumar Jha used MaxEnt, a species-distribution modelling approach, with climate variables and broader landscape factors. Isothermality — a measure comparing day-to-night temperature variation with variation across the year — together with precipitation seasonality and mean diurnal temperature range accounted for about 85% of the contribution in the climatic models. In a broader model of the realised niche — the environmental conditions the species actually occupies rather than climate alone — land cover and livestock abundance also became important, reflecting the importance of shelter and food availability.

Three scenarios projected habitat gains

Three future projections produced net gains of roughly 5–11% in suitable habitat, while one projected a net loss of about 4%. The centre of suitable area shifted by approximately 3–14 km, mainly towards the north-east or north-west. The models therefore suggested redistribution rather than a uniform expansion or contraction across Central India.

Other threats remain more important than the modelled habitat shifts

The authors identify continued exposure to diclofenac and other pressures as major constraints on recovery despite the relatively limited habitat changes projected in the models. They also projected only a nominal population increase and described the outlook as offering limited promise. They recommend combining protection from toxic veterinary drugs with habitat improvement and other recovery measures.

Sources and image credit

  1. Jha, R., & Jha, K. K. (2026). How Critically Endangered Red-Headed Vulture Would Respond to Climate Change: MaxEnt Habitat Modelling in Central India. Proceedings of the Zoological Society, 79(1), 84–95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12595-026-00612-9Primary research article published 25 March 2026. MaxEnt and climate models estimated about 91,201 km² of currently suitable habitat for red-headed vulture in Central India. Three future scenarios produced net gains of 5–11% in suitable habitat and one a 4% net loss; suitable-area centroids shifted 3–14 km towards the north-east or north-west. Isothermality, precipitation seasonality and diurnal temperature range dominated the climatic models, while land cover and livestock abundance were important in the broader realised-niche model.

Image: Tisha Mukherjee — red-headed vulture photographed in Bandhavgarh National Park, Madhya Pradesh, India, 30 May 2026; Wikimedia Commons; representative Central Indian species image, not an individual used in the habitat-modelling study · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Source

About this content: This story was produced with AI assistance within an editorial workflow developed by Wildlife Vagabond. Editorial responsibility remains with Wildlife Vagabond.How AI is used

Ecology

SPECIES IN THIS STORY

Species in this story

Red-headed Vulture Sarcogyps calvus Explore species

Independent research and conservation news archive

Did you find this information useful?

Wildlife Vagabond is independently built and maintained. Voluntary support helps cover source verification, hosting and continued work on research and conservation news.

Support Wildlife Vagabond

The news archive will remain freely available.