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Highly Suitable African Buffalo Habitat Could Shrink 16.6–22.4% in Northern Kenya by Around 2070, Model Projects

Close portrait of an African buffalo bull with a red-billed oxpecker on its muzzle
Conservation · Threats

A 2026 habitat-suitability study projects that climate change could reduce the area classed as highly suitable for African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Laikipia–Samburu ecosystem of northern Kenya. The researchers modelled current conditions and two future periods — 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 — under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate pathways, representing an intermediate and a very high greenhouse-gas emissions pathway, respectively.

The model used 166 georeferenced buffalo records and 15 environmental variables. Rainfall and temperature variation were among the strongest influences on where the model identified highly suitable habitat.

Highly suitable area is projected to decline most strongly under SSP5-8.5

The model projected a smaller reduction in highly suitable habitat by mid-century, followed by a larger contraction in 2061–2080. For that later period, the estimated reduction was 16.6% under SSP2-4.5 and 22.4% under SSP5-8.5.

These percentages refer specifically to changes in the area that the model classifies as highly suitable habitat. They are not projections of a 16.6–22.4% decline in buffalo numbers. The authors associate the projected habitat changes with rising temperatures, variation in rainfall and habitat fragmentation, with the strongest contraction under SSP5-8.5 in the later period.

The authors recommend restoring areas that remain suitable

The study recommends targeted restoration in areas that remain highly or moderately suitable. Proposed measures include planting native grasses and preserving riparian buffers through community-based projects that take local land use into account. The authors present these measures as ways to mitigate the projected future reduction in suitable habitat.

Sources and image credit

  1. Mwaniki, M. W., Ngigi, M. M., Kuria, B. T., & Mwungu, C. M. (2026). Predicting the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Syncerus caffer under varying climate dynamics in the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem in Kenya. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 157(1), 63. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05994-yPrimary peer-reviewed research article; published online 8 January 2026. © The Authors under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria.

Image: Charles J. Sharp — male African buffalo with a red-billed oxpecker at Phinda Private Game Reserve, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; representative species image, not an animal from the Laikipia–Samburu modelling study. Source: Wikimedia Commons. · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Source

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