Skip to content

Most of the Modelled Suitable Cheetah Habitat in Southern Africa Lies Outside Protected Areas

Cheetah in open habitat in Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park, South Africa
Research · Ecology

A large-scale modelling study published in August 2026 shows that much of the habitat currently suitable for cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in southern Africa lies beyond the boundaries of formal protected areas. The result highlights how strongly the future of the species depends on farms, communal lands and other landscapes shared with people.

The researchers combined cheetah records collected between 1980 and 2023 from Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. They built separate models for free-roaming cheetahs and for animals living in managed reserves, then examined how suitable habitat could change under different future climate scenarios.

About seven in ten suitable areas lay outside protected areas

Under present conditions, the models identified about 1.6 million square kilometres of suitable habitat for free-roaming cheetahs. About 69% of this area lay outside formally protected areas. Here, “suitable habitat” means areas whose environmental and human-pressure conditions the model associated with known cheetah records; it does not confirm that cheetahs currently occupy every predicted area. Temperature seasonality and human population density were among the strongest factors associated with where suitable habitat occurred.

Maps of modelled cheetah habitat suitability and protected areas across southern Africa
Baseline habitat-suitability models for free-roaming and managed-reserve cheetahs in southern Africa. Wemer et al. (2026), CC BY 4.0.

Climate projections differed sharply between free-roaming and reserve populations

The future projections were not a simple story of habitat shrinking everywhere. Under a lower-emissions scenario, suitable habitat for free-roaming cheetahs could theoretically increase by as much as 20 percent, while under a high-emissions scenario it could decline by about 5 percent. The picture was much more concerning for managed reserve populations: suitable conditions within this system were projected to decline substantially, by roughly 31–51 percent.

The authors conclude that conservation strategies for southern Africa’s free-roaming cheetahs should extend beyond formal protected areas. They argue for open-system conservation policies that maintain connectivity across private and communal lands, because most currently suitable free-roaming habitat lies outside protected areas and future climate change may alter where suitable habitat is available.

Sources and image credit

  1. Wemer, N., Naude, V. N., Razgour, O., Smit, M., Cilliers, D., Leslie, A. J., & Komdeur, J. (2026). Free-roaming cheetah conservation under predicted climate and land-use change in southern Africa. Biodiversity and Conservation, 35, 234. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-026-03446-1Primary peer-reviewed open-access study, published 7 August 2026.

Image: Derek Keats — cheetah in Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park, Northern Cape, South Africa; representative image. Source: Wikimedia Commons. · CC BY 2.0 · Source

About this content: This story was produced with AI assistance within an editorial workflow developed by Wildlife Vagabond. Editorial responsibility remains with Wildlife Vagabond.How AI is used

Ecology

SPECIES IN THIS STORY

Species in this story

Cheetah Acinonyx jubatus Explore species

Independent research and conservation news archive

Did you find this information useful?

Wildlife Vagabond is independently built and maintained. Voluntary support helps cover source verification, hosting and continued work on research and conservation news.

Support Wildlife Vagabond

The news archive will remain freely available.