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Model Projected Up to 60% Loss of Highly Suitable White-rumped Vulture Habitat by 2100

White-rumped vulture in Chitwan National Park, Nepal
Conservation · Threats

A range-wide habitat model published on 28 May 2026 projected major future losses of highly suitable habitat for the critically endangered White-rumped Vulture (Gyps bengalensis) across South and Southeast Asia. Under the higher-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario, highly suitable habitat could decline by up to 60% by 2100.

The researchers built a species-distribution model from 1,248 occurrence records collected from 2018 to 2024 and 19 variables describing climate, terrain and human pressure. In practical terms, the model identified the combinations of environmental conditions associated with recorded vultures and mapped where similar conditions occur across the wider region. Areas classified as highly suitable are therefore model predictions, not confirmation that vultures occupy every such location.

Only about one-fifth of the study area was highly suitable

Under current conditions, the model classified 20.7% of the study area as highly suitable habitat. India, Pakistan and Nepal contained the largest extents of this high-suitability habitat.

Future projections were produced for 2040, 2070 and 2100 under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. The projected contractions were strongest under SSP3-7.0, showing that climate trajectory could substantially alter where the species retains favourable conditions.

Most highly suitable habitat is outside protected areas

The analysis also found a major protection gap: more than 88% of currently highly suitable habitat lies outside protected areas. That means much of the landscape identified by the model as most favourable is exposed to land-use change and other human pressures without formal protection.

The study is a spatial model rather than a direct forecast of future vulture numbers. Its value lies in identifying where suitable conditions are concentrated now, where they may contract under future climates, and where habitat protection and risk reduction could be targeted most effectively.

Sources and image credit

  1. William, G., Saqib, Z., Qadir, A., Siddiqua, A., Asam, Z. U. Z., Farid, M., & Chaudhry, M. J. I. (2026). Multi-scale modeling of habitat suitability and human-induced risk for the critically endangered white-rumped vulture (Gyps bengalensis) in South and Southeast Asia. The Science of Nature, 113, 67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-026-02122-2Primary peer-reviewed study first published online 28 May 2026. MaxEnt model based on 1,248 occurrence records from 2018–2024 and 19 variables; 20.74% of study area classified as highly suitable, up to 60% loss projected by 2100 under SSP3-7.0, and over 88% of highly suitable habitat outside protected areas. India, Pakistan and Nepal held the largest extents of highly suitable habitat.

Image: Prasan Shrestha / Wikimedia Commons — White-rumped Vulture photographed in Chitwan National Park, Nepal, 18 December 2024; representative species image · CC BY-SA 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ · Source

About this content: This story was produced with AI assistance within an editorial workflow developed by Wildlife Vagabond. Editorial responsibility remains with Wildlife Vagabond.How AI is used

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