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Bioeconomic Model Projected Higher White-Rhino Abundance and Profits Under Ecotourism Than Trophy Hunting

Herd of white rhinoceroses in South Africa
Conservation · Management

A 2026 bioeconomic study of white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) management on private land in South Africa found that its model produced more favourable long-term outcomes for both rhino abundance and landowner profits under ecotourism than under trophy-hunting scenarios.

The study combined a biological population model with economic variables including trophy prices, ecotourism value, security and management costs, poaching losses and the number of private properties keeping white rhinos. Profitability was measured as net present value across the 2025–2065 model horizon: future revenues and costs were discounted and combined into one long-term economic measure. The model was calibrated against historical data from South Africa and reproduced the observed rise in white-rhino numbers on private land during part of the 2010–2024 calibration period, alongside changes in trophy prices and the number of properties holding rhinos.

Four management scenarios produced different long-term trajectories

Four main scenarios were then compared: trophy hunting with continued poaching, trophy hunting without poaching, ecotourism with poaching and ecotourism without poaching. In the model, both trophy-hunting scenarios initially allowed rhino numbers to rise but were followed by a long-term decline as trophy prices increased. Removing poaching did not prevent that eventual decline in the trophy-hunting scenario.

The ecotourism scenarios produced a different trajectory. Modelled white-rhino density recovered toward about 3.38 animals per square kilometre, and estimated profits were higher than under the trophy-hunting alternatives. When the model was optimised separately for profit and for rhino abundance, both objectives selected the ecotourism-only option.

Graphs comparing modelled white-rhino density, profits and farming effort under trophy hunting and ecotourism scenarios
Modelled outcomes for white-rhino density, profits and farming effort under the management scenarios. Figure 4 from Crookes (2026) · CC BY 4.0.

The mechanism in the model was linked strongly to price. Rising trophy prices increased the economic incentive for more hunting activity and eventually increased mortality faster than the modelled population could compensate. Ecotourism, by contrast, generated value from living rhinos repeatedly rather than from removing animals.

The projections depend on uncertain future assumptions

The model projects trajectories to 2065, but the author stresses substantial uncertainty in the inputs that drive those projections. Future trophy prices, tourism values and security costs are uncertain, and the paper describes the assumed future price and cost trends as highly speculative. The model also does not distinguish between sexes or age classes, even though real trophy hunting generally targets selected animals, and it simplifies the diversity of private properties, some of which combine hunting and tourism rather than operating under a single strategy.

Within those assumptions, the study concludes that its ecotourism scenarios provided the strongest combination of modelled financial returns and white-rhino persistence on private land.

Sources and image credit

  1. Crookes, D. (2026). Trophy hunting or ecotourism? Management strategies for white rhino on private land in South Africa. Environmental Modeling & Assessment. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-026-10144-3Primary peer-reviewed open-access study, published 18 June 2026.

Image: Bernard DUPONT — herd of white rhinoceroses in Kruger National Park, South Africa; representative wild image. Source: Wikimedia Commons. · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Source

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