Climate Velocity Ranked First Among Factors Linked to Global Leopard Range Loss
Across the leopard’s (Panthera pardus) global range, climate velocity ranked first among the predictors linked to historical range loss. Climate velocity describes the speed at which comparable climate conditions shift geographically. Landscape modification, livestock biomass density and forest loss followed in the global ranking.
The researchers compared IUCN maps of historical and present distribution for all nine living leopard subspecies. The historical range was divided into roughly 2,500 km² cells and each cell was classified according to whether leopards persisted or had disappeared locally. Eleven climatic and human-pressure variables were then compared with this pattern.
Two model types highlighted different parts of the pattern
The study used two modelling approaches that answer different questions. In the predictor-ranking models, climate velocity contributed most to distinguishing persistent from locally extirpated areas. In the regression model, however, landscape modification had the strongest positive association with local extirpation, while climate velocity and forest loss showed weaker positive associations. This does not mean a fixed percentage of leopards disappeared as any one pressure increased; the values describe relative patterns in the model rather than observed disappearance rates.
The leading pressures differed among subspecies
The pattern also differed among subspecies. Climate velocity, climate extremes and forest loss ranked highest for the Indian leopard (P. p. fusca). For the Amur leopard (P. p. orientalis), livestock density and broader human impact were among the leading variables. Forest loss ranked highest for the Indochinese leopard (P. p. delacouri), while no single predictor consistently dominated for the Javan and Sri Lankan leopards.
The models show associations, not direct causes
These results do not show that climate velocity or any human-pressure variable directly caused leopard losses. The models are correlative, and several important pressures — including prey depletion, persecution, poaching and retaliatory killing — could not be included consistently at a global scale. The approximately 2,500 km² cells also smooth over local conditions, and some environmental datasets describe more recent periods than the accumulated historical range contraction.
The study therefore does not reduce global leopard decline to a single driver. Instead, it shows that climatic displacement and human land transformation both carry strong global signals, while the combination of pressures associated with range loss differs substantially among the nine subspecies.
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