Skip to content

Model Predicted Blue Aircraft Lights Could Reduce Canada Goose Collision Risk by 32%

Two Canada geese in flight
Conservation · Human–wildlife conflict

A U.S. modelling study published in 2026 used Canada goose (Branta canadensis) escape behaviour to estimate the risk of collision with an approaching Boeing 737. When a goose was within the aircraft’s trajectory, the model estimated an average collision probability of about 43% without onboard warning lights.

The researchers adapted theoretical models of predator–prey encounters to animal–vehicle collisions. Their framework first asked whether the bird had enough time to clear the aircraft’s trajectory and, if not, estimated collision probability from the goose’s position and the aircraft’s frontal area.

Blue light produced the largest modelled reduction

The model compared an aircraft without warning lights with red and blue onboard lights designed around the visual system of the bird. Across the simulated scenarios, the mean collision probability was 42.9% without light, 34.7% with red light and 29.2% with blue light. Relative to the no-light scenario, this corresponded to average reductions of about 19% for red light and 32% for blue light.

The light scenarios were based on earlier experimental evidence showing that conspicuous onboard lights can cause birds to detect an approaching aircraft sooner. The 2026 study did not fly aircraft toward geese; it combined published empirical data on Canada goose escape responses with simulations of aircraft approaches.

Earlier escape mattered most

Among the behavioural variables examined, flight-initiation distance had the largest effect on modelled collision probability, followed by escape speed. In the no-light scenario, increasing flight-initiation distance from zero to more than 120 metres reduced the modelled probability from 46.0% to 36.1%, while increasing escape speed from zero to 17 metres per second reduced it from 46.7% to 37.7%.

The researchers also found that collision probability increased with aircraft approach speed and was highest when the goose occupied parts of the aircraft trajectory corresponding to the fuselage and engines. Those model predictions agreed qualitatively with the locations most often recorded for Canada goose strikes on Boeing 737 aircraft in the Federal Aviation Administration wildlife-strike database.

Sources and image credit

  1. Lunn, R. B., Blackwell, B. F., & Fernández-Juricic, E. (2026). A model to quantify the probability of collision between birds and aircraft: Applications for onboard lighting. Ecological Applications, 36(3), e70227.Primary peer-reviewed open-access study, first published 1 April 2026. The model used empirical Canada goose escape-response data and simulated Boeing 737 approaches with no light, red light and blue light.

Image: auburn — two Canada geese in flight, photographed 24 April 2023; representative species image, not birds from the study. Source: Wikimedia Commons. · CC0 1.0 · Source

About this content: This story was produced with AI assistance within an editorial workflow developed by Wildlife Vagabond. Editorial responsibility remains with Wildlife Vagabond.How AI is used

Human–wildlife conflict

SPECIES IN THIS STORY

Species in this story

Canada Goose Branta canadensis Explore species

Independent research and conservation news archive

Did you find this information useful?

Wildlife Vagabond is independently built and maintained. Voluntary support helps cover source verification, hosting and continued work on research and conservation news.

Support Wildlife Vagabond

The news archive will remain freely available.