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Climate Best Explained Fine-Scale Genetic Connectivity in Expanding Golden Jackals

Golden jackal standing in natural habitat in Taygetus, Greece
Research · Genetics & genomics

Climate variables were the strongest environmental predictors of fine-scale genetic connectivity in expanding golden jackal (Canis aureus) populations across Eurasia, according to a landscape-genomics study published on 17 April 2026. The researchers analysed 363 golden jackals using 19,746 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)—positions in the genome where individuals can differ by a single DNA base. Their landscape-genomics approach compared these genetic patterns with geography and environmental conditions to examine gene flow and local adaptation.

At the broadest continental scale, geographic distance was the predominant factor structuring genetic differences. At finer spatial scales, however, connectivity was best explained by climatic variables, particularly annual and seasonal variation in precipitation and temperature. Genetic connectivity here describes how readily genes move among populations through dispersal and reproduction; strong climatic contrasts can constrain that gene flow even when changing conditions create new connected areas elsewhere.

Climate patterns were linked to connectivity in expanding areas

The researchers modelled genetic connectivity under current and future climatic conditions. Their results indicated that changes in temperature and precipitation in central and northern Europe promote high connectivity and can help explain the species’ ongoing northward expansion.

Temperature and precipitation were also associated with most of the local-adaptation signals identified in the genomic data. These signals are genetic differences whose frequencies vary with local environmental conditions, consistent with populations being genetically adapted to different climates. The authors therefore describe climate as an important force shaping both movement of genes among populations and genetic responses to local environments.

Dog admixture showed no significant environmental pattern

Because hybridisation with domestic dogs has previously been documented in golden jackals, the researchers also tested whether the amount of dog ancestry was associated with environmental conditions. They found no significant relationship, suggesting that dog admixture had only a limited influence on habitat choice in this dataset.

The study distinguishes this result from the broader genetic structure of the species. Geographic distance remained the main factor at continental scale, while climatic variables became more important when connectivity was examined within regions.

Golden jackals are expanding rapidly across parts of Eurasia, especially northward in Europe. The authors conclude that ongoing climate change can continue to facilitate expansion where changing temperature and precipitation patterns increase habitat connectivity.

Sources and image credit

  1. Flores-Manzanero, A., Bogdanowicz, W., Stefanović, M., Adavoudi, R., Khosravi, R., Martínez-Sosa, F., Doan, K., Srinivas, Y., Banea, O. C., Ćirović, D., D'Amico, G., Djan, M., Giannatos, G., Hatlauf, J., Hayrapetyan, V., Heltai, M., Homel, K., Hulva, P., Ionică, A. M., … Pilot, M. (2026). Climate as the main driver of large-scale genetic patterns and connectivity in the expanding golden jackal. Global Change Biology, 32(4), e70879. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70879Primary research article first published 17 April 2026. The analysis used 363 golden jackals and 19,746 SNPs from the range-wide dataset also used by Stefanović et al. (2024). Geographic distance dominated continental-scale structure, while climatic predictors best explained finer-scale connectivity and most local-adaptation signals.

Image: Nickthegreek82 / Wikimedia Commons — wild golden jackal in Taygetus, Greece; representative species image from a country represented in the range-wide sampling, not identified as one of the genomic samples. · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Source

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