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Low Breeding Output Helps Explain Greenland White-fronted Goose Decline

Greenland white-fronted goose standing on grass at Big Waters Nature Reserve, United Kingdom.
Research · Ecology

Low production of young helped explain the decline of the Greenland white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris), according to a study published in March 2026. This subspecies breeds in west Greenland, stages in southern and western Iceland and winters in Great Britain and Ireland.

The researchers combined 39 years of counts, age ratios and sightings of marked geese, covering winters 1983/84–2021/22. Their model estimated survival, production of young and movements between wintering populations. It treated Wexford in Ireland and Islay and Loch Ken in Scotland separately, while pooling 65 smaller wintering populations into an “Elsewhere” group. Production of young was measured from the ratio of juveniles to adults in winter, after losses during breeding and autumn migration.

Earlier spring development was linked to lower breeding output

Earlier spring vegetation development on Icelandic staging areas was associated with lower production of young among geese wintering at Islay, Loch Ken and Elsewhere, but not at Wexford. The researchers used accumulated temperatures as an indicator of vegetation development. Greater snowfall on the Greenland breeding grounds was also associated with lower production of young in the Elsewhere group.

Observed and modelled numbers of female Greenland white-fronted geese in four wintering population groups, 1983/84–2021/22
Annual numbers of females in Wexford, Islay, Loch Ken and the pooled Elsewhere group. Open circles show counts; filled circles show model estimates. Figure 2 from Schindler et al. (2026), CC BY 4.0; reproduced without changes.

Movement between wintering areas mattered most at Wexford

Movements between wintering areas were particularly important at Wexford. Annual net immigration—the balance of arrivals and departures—was estimated at about 13% of the adult population. This influx helped sustain numbers despite low production of young and lower survival than in the other groups, although Wexford still declined after 2010. The smaller populations pooled as Elsewhere collectively supplied geese to other wintering populations, with more adults leaving than arriving.

Sources and image credit

  1. Schindler, A. R., Fox, A. D., Walsh, A. J., Griffin, L. R., Kelly, S. B. A., & Weegman, M. D. (2026). Environmental drivers of metapopulation dynamics throughout the full annual cycle in a declining Arctic-nesting migratory herbivore. Journal of Animal Ecology, 95(5), 865–881. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.70236Primary open-access research article first published 5 March 2026. An integrated metapopulation model used 39 years of fecundity, capture–resighting and abundance data from Greenland White-fronted Geese breeding in Greenland, staging in Iceland and wintering in Great Britain and Ireland. Low fecundity linked to earlier spring vegetation phenology on staging areas and increased snow on breeding areas explained the metapopulation decline; immigration and emigration shaped local wintering trends.

Image: MPF / Wikimedia Commons — Greenland white-fronted goose at Big Waters Nature Reserve, Northumberland, United Kingdom, 25 February 2015. Representative photograph; not an identified study bird. · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Source

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