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UK Winter Waterbirds Diverged: Tufted Duck Index Hit a Four-Decade Low as Canada Goose Index Rose 60%

Male and female tufted ducks swimming together
Conservation · Population & status

Official UK winter-waterbird statistics published on 16 April 2026 showed sharply contrasting trends for two familiar species. The tufted duck (Aythya fuligula) index fell to its lowest level since 1985/86, while the Canada goose (Branta canadensis) index was 60% higher than 25 years earlier.

The figures come primarily from the Wetland Bird Survey and describe smoothed abundance indices rather than complete national counts. An index tracks relative change in the monitored winter population over time; it does not state how many birds were present nationally. The 25-year trend compares 1998/99 with 2023/24 and the ten-year trend compares 2013/14 with 2023/24; data from winter 2024/25 also contribute to the smoothed calculations.

Tufted duck fell 22% over ten years

The UK tufted-duck index declined by 22% over ten years and 21% over 25 years. The ten-year declines were 16% in England, 16% in Wales, 28% in Scotland and 46% in Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland also recorded a 79% decline over 25 years and its latest index was a record low.

The longer trend was not negative everywhere: England was 2% higher than 25 years earlier and Wales 15% higher, while Scotland declined 25%. Because tufted ducks are partly migratory, changes in the UK winter index can reflect both population change and redistribution within the wider flyway.

Canada goose rose 60% nationally but declined in Northern Ireland

The UK Canada-goose index increased by 60% over 25 years and 27% over ten years. England rose by 49% and Wales by 140% over 25 years, while Scotland increased 375%. Northern Ireland moved in the opposite direction, with declines of 44% over 25 years and 45% over ten years.

JNCC notes that the established non-native Canada goose is still increasing nationally, although its ten-year growth rate is slightly lower than in the previous annual release.

The indices describe winter use of the UK, not total flyway populations

Winter distribution can change with weather, food, water levels and migration strategy. The 2024/25 winter was milder than average in Europe, and short-stopping farther east or north can reduce British counts of migratory waterbirds without an equivalent decline across their entire populations. JNCC therefore cautions against assigning any single cause to an index change without wider flyway evidence.

Sources and image credit

  1. Joint Nature Conservation Committee. (2026, April 16). Official statistic on wintering waterbird population trends. https://jncc.gov.uk/our-work/official-statistic-on-wintering-waterbird-population-trends/Official UK statistic published 16 April 2026. The UK tufted duck index was 21% lower over 25 years and 22% lower over ten years, reaching its lowest level since 1985/86. Canada goose was 60% higher over 25 years and 27% higher over ten years. Data from 2024/25 contribute to the smoothed indices although reported trend periods end in 2023/24.

Image: Luiz Lapa / Wikimedia Commons — male and female tufted ducks photographed at Lagoa Pequena de Albufeira, Sesimbra, Portugal, 13 November 2019; representative species image, not birds from the UK monitoring data; cropped to 16:9. · CC BY 2.0 · Source

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Population & status

SPECIES IN THIS STORY

Species in this story

Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula Explore species Canada Goose Branta canadensis Explore species

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