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New Model Mapped Feral Pigs More Widely Across Australia Than Earlier Maps

Group of feral pigs at water at Jardines Lagoon in North Queensland, Australia
Research · Ecology

A new continental model mapped invasive feral pigs (Sus scrofa) across a larger part of mainland Australia than earlier broad distribution maps had suggested. In Australia these free-living populations belong to the same species as the wild boar. The 2026 study produced a contemporary estimate of relative abundance, showing where pigs were expected to be more or less common rather than estimating an exact number of animals per square kilometre.

Nearly 98,000 records were combined in one national model

The researchers integrated almost 98,000 records from 30 data sources. These included simple occurrence records, systematic surveys that recorded both presence and absence, and datasets containing information on relative abundance. Because the records had been collected by different agencies and monitoring programmes for different purposes, the model also accounted for uneven search effort.

This allowed fragmented information held across jurisdictions and institutions to contribute to one quantitative map instead of relying on older qualitative distribution outlines.

The larger mapped range does not by itself show recent expansion

The model predicted feral pigs to be widespread across much of northern Australia, along the east and in the southwest, while large parts of the arid interior had low predicted occurrence or were effectively absent. In several regions, the resulting contemporary footprint was broader than earlier maps had indicated.

This comparison does not show that pigs recently expanded into all of those newly mapped areas. The study combined contemporary records to improve the estimate of current distribution; it did not reconstruct a time series of range expansion. The result therefore shows that earlier maps underestimated or incompletely represented the present-day distribution in several parts of the continent.

The researchers tested the predictions against an independent presence–absence dataset. The model performed well in most evaluated regions, giving the authors confidence in the broad pattern, but predictions were less reliable in northern Australia than elsewhere. Northern Australia should therefore be interpreted with greater uncertainty even though the model predicts extensive occurrence there.

The authors argue that a quantitative national map can improve surveillance and management of one of Australia’s most damaging invasive mammals by showing where pigs are likely to be common and where distribution remains uncertain.

Sources and image credit

  1. Rees, M. W., Mitchell, D. J., Ng, K., Parsons, S. K., Proft, K. M., Foster, S. D., Peel, D., Amir, Z., Bruce, T., Luskin, M. S., & Froese, J. G. (2026). Integrated modelling reveals widespread distribution of invasive wild pigs across Australia. Biological Conservation, 320, 111917. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2026.111917Primary research article first published 26 May 2026. The study integrated 51,444 presence-only, 11,176 presence–absence and 34,981 abundance–absence records from 30 datasets to model contemporary wild-pig relative abundance across Australia. Predictions showed a wider distribution across northern, eastern and southwestern mainland Australia than older maps suggested and largely low occurrence in the arid interior. Independent validation exceeded AUC ROC 0.85 in all assessed regions except northern Australia.
  2. CSIRO. (2026). Integrated modelling reveals widespread distribution of invasive wild pigs across Australia.Official CSIRO publication record confirming 26 May 2026 as the publication date and identifying the article as a public research output.

Image: Jim Bendon / Wikimedia Commons / Flickr — group of feral Wild Boar coming to water at Jardines Lagoon near Einasleigh, North Queensland, Australia; representative Australian image · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Source

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