Skip to content

Survey Estimate for Arctic Alaska Dunlins Fell 89% Over 17.5 Years

Dunlin of the arcticola subspecies on Alaskan tundra
Conservation · Population & status

A long-term resurvey of breeding shorebirds in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, estimated an 89% decline in the local breeding population of the dunlin subspecies Calidris alpina arcticola between survey periods separated by 17.5 years. The exact magnitude of the decline remains uncertain. The study, published in 2026, repeated standardized surveys from 2002 and 2004 in 2019 and 2022 across 6,249 km² of the refuge’s Coastal Plain.

Using the study’s updated procedure for a contemporary population benchmark, the researchers estimated about 1,090 breeding C. a. arcticola in the study area in 2019 and 2022, although the estimate was highly uncertain. The 89% decline was calculated separately with the same enumeration method used for both survey periods so that the older and newer estimates could be compared consistently.

Sixteen shorebird populations were estimated

The researchers estimated population sizes for 16 shorebird species. Using the same enumeration approach for both periods, the combined shorebird estimate in 2019 and 2022 was about 17% lower than in 2002 and 2004, but this community-wide change was too uncertain to distinguish clearly from no overall change.

Four species showed clear declines

Four species showed clear negative trends. The estimated decline was about 89% for C. a. arcticola dunlins, 78% for long-billed dowitchers (Limnodromus scolopaceus), 55% for red-necked phalaropes (Phalaropus lobatus) and 90% for red phalaropes (Phalaropus fulicarius). Dunlins were also among five species with a greater than 90% estimated probability of decline.

The authors note that the decline in Alaska-breeding C. a. arcticola is consistent with other demographic evidence for this population. They point to loss and alteration of intertidal habitat on the East Asian–Australasian Flyway, used outside the breeding season, as a likely contributor. A separate comparison restricted to 95 plots surveyed in both periods showed the same direction for dunlins but a weaker signal, illustrating uncertainty among analytical approaches while leaving the broader decline pattern intact.

Sources and image credit

  1. Brown, S. C., Lyons, J. E., Saalfeld, S. T., Schulte, S., Latty, C. J., McGarvey, M., Kidd, L. R., Carr, K. L. K., & Lanctot, R. B. (2026). Breeding shorebird surveys in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, suggest population declines over two decades for most species. Ornithological Applications, 128(2), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1093/ornithapp/duag022Primary open-access research article published 16 February 2026. Standardized surveys across 6,249 km² of Arctic National Wildlife Refuge compared 2002/2004 with 2019/2022. The estimated trend for Calidris alpina arcticola was approximately -89% over 17.5 years (90% CI -96% to -72%).

Image: Peter Pearsall / USFWS — dunlin of the arcticola subspecies (Calidris alpina arcticola) on a tundra hummock at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, photographed 13 June 2019; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; representative Alaska image of the same subspecies, not a bird from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge survey plots · Public Domain · Source

About this content: This story was produced with AI assistance within an editorial workflow developed by Wildlife Vagabond. Editorial responsibility remains with Wildlife Vagabond.How AI is used

Population & status

SPECIES IN THIS STORY

Species in this story

Dunlin Calidris alpina Explore species

Independent research and conservation news archive

Did you find this information useful?

Wildlife Vagabond is independently built and maintained. Voluntary support helps cover source verification, hosting and continued work on research and conservation news.

Support Wildlife Vagabond

The news archive will remain freely available.