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Five of Six Indicator Birds Could Lose Large Areas of Suitable Habitat in Luxembourg

Northern Wheatear at Hiers-Brouage, France
Conservation · Threats

Researchers modelled future habitat suitability in Luxembourg for six indicator bird species: Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Northern Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), European Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), Red-backed Shrike (Lanius collurio), Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) and Woodlark (Lullula arborea). The study examined how climate and land-cover change could reshape where suitable conditions remain and how well those areas overlap Luxembourg’s protected-area network.

To estimate where each species could find suitable conditions, the researchers combined five machine-learning methods in an ensemble, so the final projection did not depend on a single model. They then filtered the climate projections with species-specific land-cover data at 30-metre resolution. They modelled 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 under two standardised future climate pathways, SSP2–4.5 and the warmer SSP5–8.5 scenario, then compared the projected habitat patterns with protected areas.

Five species lost substantial suitable area in the warmer scenario

Under SSP5–8.5, Red-backed Shrike, Northern Wheatear and Northern Lapwing showed the strongest shifts toward very low habitat suitability by 2041–2060. European Pied Flycatcher and Northern Goshawk also showed substantial reductions in environmentally suitable area. Woodlark was less affected than the other focal species, although the projected loss was still 47.9%. Open-land and edge-associated species also had poorer coverage by protected areas than forest-associated species.

Suitability loss is not the same as observed population loss

These are projections of environmental suitability, not observed population declines, confirmed losses of occupancy or inevitable local extinctions. The authors use the combined climate, land-cover and protected-area results to identify where future conservation priorities may be greatest.

Sources and image credit

  1. Eddamiri, S., Hiebel, L., Hakam, O., Sai, A. R., & Brewster, C. (2026). Risk and resilience of indicator bird species under climate and land-cover change. Ecological Indicators, 190, 115324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115324Primary open-access research article first available online 13 August 2026. Ensemble species-distribution models combined climate and 30-m land-cover data for six indicator birds in Luxembourg. Under SSP5–8.5, Northern Wheatear, Northern Lapwing and Red-backed Shrike shifted strongly toward very-low-suitability habitat classes, while European Pied Flycatcher and Northern Goshawk showed substantial reductions in environmentally suitable area. The authors explicitly caution that the projections describe environmental suitability rather than realised occupancy loss or local extinction.

Image: Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) at Hiers-Brouage, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France, 25 April 2025. Photo: TRinaud. Source: Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0. Representative species image; not an individual from the Luxembourg modelling study. · CC BY 4.0 · Source

About this content: This story was produced with AI assistance within an editorial workflow developed by Wildlife Vagabond. Editorial responsibility remains with Wildlife Vagabond.How AI is used

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SPECIES IN THIS STORY

Species in this story

European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca Explore species Northern Wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe Explore species Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Explore species

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