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Red Foxes Tracked Annual Vole Abundance While All Three Carnivores Aggregated Around Local Prey Hotspots

Iberian red fox standing in natural habitat
Research · Ecology

A ten-year study in Montaña Palentina Natural Park in northern Spain found that red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), European wildcats (Felis silvestris) and domestic cats (Felis catus) responded to the same fluctuating rodent prey differently depending on spatial scale. Across years, red-fox detections tracked abundance of the Montane water vole (Arvicola scherman) most closely. At a local scale, however, all three carnivores concentrated around especially prey-rich patches.

The study analysed standardised vehicle surveys from 2016 to 2025 in mountain grazing meadows. After observations outside meadow and grassland habitat were excluded, the broad-scale dataset contained 1,423 carnivore detections: 443 red foxes, 378 wildcats and 602 domestic cats.

Red fox detections tracked annual vole abundance most clearly

Vole activity was measured separately at 278 sampling points from the presence of fresh molehills along standardised transects. The index measured signs of vole activity, not a direct count of individual rodents.

Red-fox detections showed a strong positive same-year relationship with the annual vole index. Domestic cats showed no statistically clear annual association, while wildcats showed essentially no same-year relationship.

When wildcat detections were compared with vole abundance from the previous year, the association became much stronger. One correlation test was just outside the conventional significance threshold, while another was significant. The authors therefore interpret the result as a possible delayed wildcat response rather than a firmly demonstrated one-year demographic lag.

For red foxes, the immediate pattern is consistent with a functional response: foxes may quickly shift where and how intensely they use meadows when voles become abundant. The data do not show that fox population size immediately increased in vole-rich years.

All three carnivores aggregated around local prey hotspots

The researchers then asked a different question at a much finer scale. Around each carnivore observation they examined vole activity within a 300-m radius and compared the local maximum with what would normally be expected for that year. The 300-m radius was a practical analysis window, not an estimate of how far a carnivore can detect prey or normally travel.

After observations without a nearby vole-sampling point were excluded, 1,373 carnivore detections remained. A locally higher-than-expected vole index occurred around 80.4% of red-fox observations, 82.4% of wildcat observations and 81.7% of domestic-cat observations.

The similarity is striking because the three carnivores have different foraging ecologies. It does not mean they used the whole landscape in the same way. Rather, within the meadow areas each species used, all three were disproportionately associated with local prey-rich patches.

Predator–prey coupling changed with scale

The authors had expected the more rodent-specialised wildcat to track vole abundance more closely than the generalist red fox and human-associated domestic cat. The results did not follow that simple specialist–generalist gradient.

Red foxes showed the clearest immediate response to year-to-year prey fluctuations, while all three species converged on local prey hotspots. Wildcats may respond more slowly because they are more strongly tied to particular habitat structures, whereas domestic cats can also receive food from people. These mechanisms are interpretations consistent with the observations, not experimentally separated causes.

Detections are not population estimates

The carnivore data came from vehicle-based observations in open grazing meadows. Differences in how easily each species can be seen cannot be completely separated from differences in how strongly they use that habitat.

The study therefore does not estimate total carnivore population size or complete landscape distribution. Its defensible result is narrower: meadow detections changed with prey availability, and the apparent predator–prey relationship depended strongly on the spatial scale at which it was measured.

Sources and image credit

  1. Palomares, F., Román, J., Jubete, F., Urra, F., Calzada, J., & Revilla, E. (2026). Foraging ecology differences fail to predict carnivore responses to variation in a key prey across spatial scales. Acta Oecologica, 132, 104188.Primary open-access research article available online 29 June 2026 under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. The 2016–2025 study recorded 1,423 carnivore detections in Montaña Palentina Natural Park (378 wildcats, 443 red foxes, 602 domestic cats). Red fox detections correlated strongly with annual Montane water vole abundance (Spearman r=0.709, p=0.022); fine-scale analysis retained 1,373 detections, with 80.4% of 429 fox observations, 82.4% of 376 wildcat observations and 81.7% of 586 domestic-cat observations occurring near local vole maxima above year-specific expectations. Vehicle detections were interpreted as meadow use/detections, not population estimates.

Image: Qwexcxewq / Wikimedia Commons — Iberian red fox photographed 17 August 2024; CC BY-SA 4.0; representative Iberian red fox image, not an animal from the Montaña Palentina study · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Source

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