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Northern Pintail Counts Fell by an Average 98.3% Across Seven Studied Punjab Wetlands

Northern Pintails resting in wetland habitat
Conservation · Population & status

Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) counts fell sharply at seven wetlands in Punjab, Pakistan, between 2015 and 2025. Across the study sites, the authors calculated an average reduction of 98.3% between the beginning and end of the period. Namal Lake declined by 99% and Uchali Lake by 99.2%.

A point count is a survey in which observers remain at a fixed location for a set period and record birds seen or heard, allowing sites to be compared in a standardised way.

The birds were counted annually using boat-based and point-count surveys. The researchers combined these records with rainfall data and satellite measures of wetland vegetation and surface water to examine which habitat changes best matched the decline.

Very large declines, but not the same pattern at every wetland

Most wetlands showed clear long-term declines across the annual series. Uchali Lake was an important exception: although the difference between its early and late counts exceeded 99%, year-to-year variation meant that its overall long-term trend was not statistically clear.

The 98.3% figure therefore describes the average reduction in counts across these seven wetlands. It is not an estimate that the entire Northern Pintail population of Punjab, Pakistan or the wider flyway declined by that amount.

Vegetation loss matched the decline better than water alone

Among the environmental variables examined, loss of wetland vegetation was the strongest habitat factor associated with falling pintail numbers. The authors argue that water alone was not enough to maintain good wintering habitat when vegetation had deteriorated, because wetland plants contribute both food and shelter.

The study is observational, so the relationship does not show that vegetation loss caused the entire decline. Rainfall, water conditions and other environmental changes can occur together, and factors elsewhere along the migration route were not measured. The strongest conclusion is that severe local declines in pintail counts closely tracked habitat degradation, especially vegetation loss.

The authors therefore argue that conservation at these wetlands should go beyond maintaining water levels and also protect or restore wetland vegetation and habitat structure used by wintering waterbirds.

Sources and image credit

  1. Batool, N., Batool, A. I., Ur Rehman, M. F., Sarwar, M., Ikram, J., Naveed, N. H., Inayat, I., Riaz, S., & Bibi, H. (2026). Wetland Transformation and Waterfowl Decline: Linking Habitat Change to Northern Pintail Losses in Punjab. Environmental Management, 76(3), 78. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-026-02386-4Primary peer-reviewed study published online 30 January 2026. Annual surveys from 2015–2025 across wetlands in Punjab, Pakistan, found Northern Pintail declines of 99.04% at Namal Lake and 99.19% at Uchali Lake, with an average reduction of 98.34% across all studied wetlands. NDVI and NDWI analyses identified extensive vegetation loss as the main habitat factor associated with the decline.

Image: Jashjashjash / Wikimedia Commons — Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) in wetland habitat at Surajpur Wetlands, India, photographed 22 December 2021; representative species image, not birds from the Punjab study. · CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ · Source

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